New York Mets at Chicago Cubs odds, picks and predictions (2024)

The New York Mets (36-39) take on the Chicago Cubs (37-40) Sunday in the finale of a 3-game set on Sunday Night Baseball at Wrigley Field at 7 p.m. ET (ESPN). Let’s analyze BetMGM Sportsbook’s lines around the Mets vs. Cubs odds and make our expert MLB picks and predictions for the best bets.

Season series: Tied 3-3

It was the Mets’ turn to get blown out with an 8-1 elbow drop off the top ropes. They managed just 1 run on 7 hits and struck out 14 times in the game. They’ve lost 2 of 3 but are 8-2 and 14-6 over the last 10 and 20 games.

The Cubs atoned for an 11-1 smoker by the Mets Friday with 10 K’s by RHP Jameson Taillon Saturday. Cubs 3B Christopher Morel went 2-for-4 with a homer and 2 RBIs. The Cubs have turned around a bad month with wins in 3 of 4 games, but they’re 11-19 over the last 30.

Mets at Cubs projected starters

RHP Luis Severinovs. RHP Javier Assad

Severino (4-2, 3.52 ERA) makes his 15th start. He has a 1.20 WHIP, 3.3 BB/9 and 6.5 K/9 through 84 1/3 innings.

• Last start: No-decision, 6 1/3 IP, 6 ER, 8 H, 1 BB, 1 K in 7-6 win Tuesday at Texas Rangers
• 3 career starts vs. Cubs: 0-0, 1.29 ERA, 0.76 WHIP, 24 K in 21 IP

Assad (4-2, 2.75 ERA) makes his 16th start. He has a 1.25 WHIP, 3.7 BB/9 and 9.0 K/9 through 78 2/3 innings.

• Last start: No-decision, 5 IP, 1 ER, 5 H, 2 BB, 7 K in 7-6 home loss vs. San Francisco Giants Monday
• Career vs. Mets: 1-0, 1.59 ERA (11 1/3 IP, 2 ER), 1.15 WHIP, 6.4 K/9 in 2 starts and 1 relief appearance, including 0-0 with 1.80 ERA (5 IP, 1 ER) in 1 start this season

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Mets at Cubs odds

Provided by BetMGM Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated at 11:20 a.m. ET.

• Moneyline (ML): Mets -105 (bet $105 to win $100) | Cubs -115 (bet $115 to win $100)
• Run line (RL)/Against the spread (ATS): Mets -1.5 (+155) | Cubs +1.5 (-190)
• Over/Under (O/U): 8.5 (O: -105 | U: -115)

Mets at Cubs picks and predictions

Prediction

Cubs 4, Mets 2

Moneyline

The Mets have been better on the road than at home with an 18-16 mark with just an 18-23 record at Citi Field. Conversely, the Cubs are better at home with a 22-17 mark at Wrigley and just a 15-23 record away from home. The Mets’ pitching is starting to erode, as evidenced by Severino’s blowup in his last start.

I’ll side with the CUBS -115 here.

Run line/Against the spread

After the Mets whiffed 14 times Saturday, I like JAVIER ASSAD OVER 4.5 K’s (-140). He has 5+ K’s in 5 of 7 starts.

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Over/Under

The wind is expected to swirl inwards from left-center and then from left to right on a 71-degree evening. The Mets are 5-5 O/U over the last 10 games, and the Cubs are 3-7.

After slugfests in the first 2 games, and with some conditions favoring the pitchers, I like the UNDER 8.5 (-115).

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